The Trump administration's recent decision to cancel $766 million in funding to vaccine company Moderna for the development of a bird flu vaccine represents an ominous retreat from America's pandemic preparedness strategy. The withdrawn funding, originally allocated by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), was meant to advance the development of Moderna's mRNA-based vaccine, mRNA-1018, which is targeted against an H5N1 avian influenza strain that virologists fear could mutate and cause a deadly human pandemic.
The abrupt withdrawal came just as Moderna released promising early results -- robust immune responses and a strong safety profile in a trial involving 300 healthy adults. But rather than advancing this project, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — a longtime, dedicated anti-vaccine activist — terminated the support.
The implications are potentially catastrophic.
"This is a signal that we are changing our posture on pandemic preparedness," said Beth Cameron, PhD, former director at the White House National Security Council and now a senior adviser at the Brown University Pandemic Center. In a masterpiece of understatement, she added, "And that is not good for the American people."
A Virus with Pandemic Potential
The H5N1 bird flu presents no ordinary threat. During the past year, there have been scores of confirmed cases of symptomatic H5N1 bird flu in humans in 13 states, with one fatality. That is in addition to the devastation in poultry and cows, which has affected more than 165 million chickens, turkeys and other birds across almost every state since the outbreak began in poultry in 2022 and has been detected in almost a thousand herds of cattle and dairy cows across 17 states. The virus has also been detected in numerous other species of mammals in many parts of the world, including seals, mice, goats, and domestic cats.
The ability of the H5N1 virus to infect so many species of mammals is a particular concern because of the possibility it could lead to the emergence of a new pandemic strain via a process called reassortment. That occurs when two different influenza viruses, like an avian H5N1 virus and a human seasonal flu virus, simultaneously infect the same host cell and exchange genetic material, giving rise to a new virus with a mix of genes from both parent viruses. (The flu virus genome consists of eight segments of RNA which can be swapped during coinfection.) A potential outcome is a virus that retains the H5N1's ability to cause severe illness but also acquires the ability to spread easily among humans, potentially leading to a pandemic. The 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics were caused by reassortment events where avian and human influenza viruses exchanged genes.
Most human cases thus far have been mild, and there have been no confirmed instances of person-to-person spread, but the CDC has reported a new concern: three cases of H5N1 detected in U.S. veterinarians who work with cattle, with two cases lacking a clear source of exposure. These infections were identified through antibody testing rather than through symptomatic illness, reflecting silent spread of the virus.
The greatest concern is not the current case count but the virus's capacity to mutate. As it spreads through mammalian hosts like cows, the virus could evolve to transmit efficiently between humans. Angela Rasmussen, PhD, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, noted that cows are biologically closer to humans than birds, and the virus's ability to thrive in cattle suggests it may be adapting to human-compatible cells. If human-to-human transmission becomes routine, she warned, "We'd need to immediately make vaccines."
The Role of mRNA and the Fallout of Flawed Policy
Moderna's mRNA-based H5N1 vaccine was constructed with the same technology that allowed the record-speed development of COVID vaccines in 2020. Unlike traditional flu vaccine manufacturing — which can take up to 10 months and usually relies on cultivating viruses in chicken eggs — mRNA vaccines can be developed within weeks of identifying a viral genome. This speed is critical for matching a vaccine to an emerging strain.
Ironically, traditional methods may be especially vulnerable to disruption during a bird flu pandemic. A massive outbreak could devastate poultry populations, cutting off the egg supply needed for vaccine manufacturing. Despite this, the Trump administration is now channeling $500 million into reviving egg-based vaccine production -- an outdated method largely abandoned after the 1980s due to safety concerns, mainly potential mutations in the virus during cultivation in eggs and the possibility of allergic reactions to the vaccine in individuals with egg allergies.
"This politicized regression is baffling," said Rick Bright, PhD, a former BARDA director. "We're investing in obsolete methods while shutting down the very technologies that could save lives." I suspect that Dr. Bright used "baffled" as a euphemism; he is aware that the federal public health establishment is riddled with ideologues who harbor irrational, baseless antagonism toward mRNA vaccines.
BARDA was created to defend against exactly this kind of threat. Its job is to work with pharmaceutical companies to develop countermeasures before emergencies strike. Funding from BARDA helps companies like Moderna run clinical trials, scale up manufacturing, and prepare for rapid deployment in a crisis. The now-canceled January tranche of $590 million was intended to fund a critical late-stage trial that could have determined the vaccine's efficacy in real-world conditions.
"When the need hits and we aren't ready, no other country will come to our rescue and we will suffer greatly," Dr. Bright warned.
This isn't mere speculation. During the COVID pandemic, countries that manufactured vaccines — like the ones produced in the U.S. by Moderna and Pfizer — were first in line for doses. In contrast, low- and middle-income countries without production capacity waited months, often at a deadly cost.
Shredding the Infrastructure
Moderna's defunding is just the latest in a series of blows to the U.S. public health infrastructure. In Trump 2.0, at least half the staff of the National Security Council's global health unit have left or been dismissed. The CDC faces massive cuts if Trump's proposed $32 billion budget reduction is approved. Peter Marks, MD, PhD, who was America's top vaccine regulator, resigned under pressure in March, citing "the unprecedented assault on scientific truth."
The consequences of this exodus are already visible. Since March, the CDC has virtually abandoned testing farmworkers for H5N1, despite their high exposure to infected cattle. The lack of surveillance, Dr. Rasmussen cautioned, means the virus could spread silently among humans until hospitalizations surge — by which time, vaccine development would be a race against a rapidly rising death count, similar to the COVID pandemic in 2020. "You can't just turn this all back on," she said. "The longer it takes to respond, the more people die."
America Could Be Last in Line
While U.S. officials are whistling past the graveyard, other countries are preparing. India has launched grant programs for mRNA-based bird flu vaccines, and Argentina's Sinergium Biotech is already testing one with support from the World Health Organization's mRNA tech transfer program. South Korea, Singapore, and France are investing heavily in rapid-response platforms. Norway-based CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which played a critical role in COVID vaccine development, has committed $20 million to similar efforts for bird flu.
If the U.S. becomes a non-participant in this international ecosystem, it will lose leverage to secure vaccines when they're most needed. We could see a situation similar to the early months of the COVID pandemic, when states and cities scrambled desperately for ventilators and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).
Flawed Justifications
HHS communications director Andrew Nixon defended the funding cut: "After a rigorous review, we concluded that continued investment in Moderna's H5N1 mRNA vaccine was not scientifically or ethically justifiable...This is not simply about efficacy — it's about safety, integrity, and trust. The reality is that mRNA technology remains under-tested, and we are not going to spend taxpayer dollars repeating the mistakes of the last administration, which concealed legitimate safety concerns from the public." The scientific consensus says otherwise, which, given the dismal track record of RFK, Jr. on credibility and veracity, should come as no surprise.
A placebo-controlled trial of over 30,000 participants found that severe adverse events from Moderna's extremely effective COVID vaccine were rare and temporary. And among nearly 20,000 participants who received boosters, only three experienced significant side effects — none permanent -- while COVID itself killed four during the trial period and the post-infection signs and symptoms of "Long COVID" afflicted many.
Concerns about myocarditis have been thoroughly studied. One large study found about two cases per 100,000 people after Pfizer's mRNA vaccine. COVID infection, by contrast, causes 10 to 105 cases per 100,000.
Despite this evidence, Secretary Kennedy — who founded an anti-vaccine organization — has falsely claimed mRNA COVID vaccines are "the deadliest ever made" and even suggested that the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic originated from vaccine research.
It is this kind of deliberate disinformation, not problems with vaccines, that is sowing mistrust. Politics also plays a role: A recent KFF poll found that 73% of Republicans trust Kennedy on vaccine issues more than they trust their local health departments or the CDC.
A Dangerous Gamble with Lives
The lesson from the COVID pandemic should be clear: Preparedness saves lives. State-of-the-art vaccines developed and deployed swiftly prevented millions of deaths. Dismantling this capacity on ideological grounds not only risks lives but betrays the very first responsibility of government — to protect its citizens.
However, in Dr. Rasmussen's words: "Should the bird flu become a pandemic in the next few years, we will be screwed on multiple levels."
We still have time. The virus has not yet evolved to spread efficiently between people. Excellent vaccine technology exists. Partnerships with domestic and global manufacturers are still possible. But every day that passes without investment and planning is a day we squander our advantage — and increase the odds that the next pandemic will find us unprepared.
Henry I. Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is the Glenn Swogger Distinguished Fellow at the American Council on Science and Health. A veteran of the NIH and FDA, he was the founding director of the FDA's Office of Biotechnology.